【经管学院青年学者论坛】王皓晴 :Forecasting Intermittent Demand for Inventory Management by Retailers: A New Approach(11月26日)

  • 日期:2021-11-17

 

讲座题目:Forecasting Intermittent Demand for Inventory Management by Retailers: A New Approach

 

主讲人:王皓晴  中国科学院大学经济与管理学院2019级硕士研究生

 

讲座时间:2021年11月26日(周五)14:00-15:30

 

讲座地点:中关村教学楼S406(线下) 腾讯会议 ID:515 330 807(线上)

 

内容简介:The forecasting of intermittent demand is a complex task owing to demand fluctuations and interval uncertainty. Intermittent demand is essentially random demand with a high percentage of zero values. In the retail industry, there are many products which face intermittent demand and this poses a problem of inventory management. This study proposes a Markov-combined method (MCM) for forecasting intermittent demand, which takes into account the inventory status and historical sales of products. We divide the prediction process into two stages. In the first stage, the transition probabilities of the four basic states of demand and inventory are calculated. In the second stage, the corresponding and appropriate prediction method is selected according to the predicted state. Further, using two large datasets from the two biggest e-commerce companies in China, we verify our results and show that the MCM forecasts more accurately than the Single Exponential Smoothing (SES), Syntetos-Boylan Approximation (SBA), and Croston (CR) methods. The MCM can be as an alternative method for forecasting intermittent demand because it is easy to compute and typically more accurate than the classical forecasting methods.

 

个人简介:王皓晴,2019级硕士研究生,研究方向为物流与供应链管理,导师为田歆副教授。目前已经在SSCI、CSSCI等国内外知名期刊发表论文2篇,录用1篇;跟随导师撰写的政策报告被国办采用;参与导师多项政府项目、企业委托课题。